The Situation in Japan

I have been watching the tragedy unfold in Japan after their recent 8.9 earthquake and resultant tsunami. As the cable news has shown so well, the devastation is widespread, particularly in the low-lying areas along the northeast coast of the country. I send the Japanese people my condolences for those who have died and who were injured in this tragedy, and my deep hopes that they will soon be on the road back  to recovery.

It’s probably no surprise to readers of this blog that I am especially interested in the events unfolding around the three Japanese nuclear reactor plants closest to the epicenter of the earthquake: Fukushima Daiichi, Daini, and Onagawa. There are currently 54 operating reactors in Japan, and together they provided the country with about 30 percent of its electricity before the quake hit.

While the three reactor plants closest to the quake all declared states of emergency, it appears that the situation at the Daiichi plant is the most serious. In the aftermath of last week’s earthquake, power to the plant was immediately cut off, and the tsunami that followed in the earthquake’s wake disabled the plant’s backup diesel generators. The steam turbine backup functioned, however, generating the power required to keep pumping water through the reactor vessels. Unfortunately, the system was severely compromised, and it appears that the reactor cores were exposed.

At the time of the quake, there were three functioning reactors at Daiichi. It is now believed that Reactor 1, built in 1970, and reactor 3, built in 1974, have both suffered partial meltdowns. You have probably by now seen the video of the explosions that took place when hydrogen gas was vented into the secondary containment buildings of reactors 1 and 3, where it combined with oxygen and detonated, blowing the roofs off the buildings and releasing some amount of cesium-137. It is thought that the control rods in Reactor 2, built in 1973, are fully exposed. Technicians at Daiichi are struggling to bring the situation under control, flooding the reactor cores with seawater doped with boron.

I hope that the technicians are soon able to get the reactors fully under control. According to the reports I have read, more than 200,000 people have been evacuated from the area around the reactors, and that at one point radiation levels in the Daiichi area were 1,000 time normal levels, exposing at least 160 people to high levels of radiation. In addition, 17 sailors returning to the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan from disaster-relief missions were found to have been exposed to low levels of radiation, receiving a month’s worth of normal radiation exposure in about an hour. As I write this blog post, the radiation levels in the Daiichi area have fallen considerably, but iodine is being distributed to evacuation centers in the area in the event of a large-scale release of radiation.

What this experience points out to me is that no matter how much we might prepare for a disaster of this magnitude, the human race is of little consequence when the full power of Mother Nature is brought to bear. If anyone is prepared for earthquakes and tsunamis, it is the Japanese people. However, despite all these preparations, the sheer power of nature quickly overwhelmed their best efforts, and potentially tens of thousands of people have lost their lives, with many thousands more injured. The country’s economy will surely take a severe beating as well—the Japanese Nikkei stock exchange lost about 6 percent of its value on Monday, and many manufacturers have shut down production.

If there is a silver lining to this unfolding story, it is that all of Japan’s preparation did make a difference. Many more people would have died and many more would have been injured without these preparations. We should also now redouble our own efforts to be prepared for our next natural disaster. We can’t afford to wait until “the Big One” hits.

– Bob


13 Responses to “The Situation in Japan”

  1. 1 Paul Hergert

    Dr. Beyster:

    It is increasingly difficult to find apolitical, rationale analysis of current events. This is especially true of anything scientific – which is even more distressing. Thanks for your prudent assessment.

    Paul Hergert

  2. 2 Ron Knecht

    Bob,
    As we look at this disaster it brings to mind the quotation attributed to Will Durant “Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice.”

    This thought is expanded in Will and Ariel Durant’s “Lessons of History” (Simon & Schuster 1968), chapter 2 (“History and the Earth”) “At any moment a comet may come too close to the earth and set our little globe turning topsy-turvy in a hectic course, or choke its men and fleas with fumes or heat; or a fragment of the smiling sun may slip off tangentially — as some think our planet did a few astronomic moments ago–and fall upon us in a wild embrace ending all grief and pain. We accept these possibilities in our stride, and retort to the cosmos in the words of Pascal: ‘When the universe has crushed him man will still be nobler than that which kills him, because he knows that he is dying, and of its victory the universe knows nothing.’”

    My concern is that the news media is doing so much fear mongering over the dreaded “meltdown” that we will lose more decades before we again consider using nuclear power to meet our energy needs. This will be unfortunate because if we (U.S., China, India) stay on the coal path for additional decades we will add enough carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and to the oceans rto create unknown risks to the food chain. So in addition to geology Man can also destroy civilization through the steady accumulation of the waste products of that very civilization.

  3. 3 Paul Hergert

    Dr. Beyster:

    I meant ‘rational’ not ‘rationale’…

    Thanks,
    Paul Hergert

  4. 4 Dan Bochneak

    Hi Bob,
    Once more the forces that shape and control our environment remind us of the potential lethality of the ever-present natural threats to quality of life, and life itself. The magnitude of the major earthquake that triggered the tsunamis that hit Japan has been reported to be the highest in Japan’s recorded history. Yet, news reports from Japan indicate that structures, including the nuclear power plants, seem to have pretty reliably maintained their structural integrity, despite the energy of the rapid vertical and lateral seismic forces that hit the island nation.

    The tsunami early warning system saved lives, while thousands of lives appear to have been lost predominantly to the immutable force of the tsunamis. Nothing, except that which was on high ground, appears to have remained undamaged by the force of the tsunamis. Death toll and damage to most structures, including the nuclear facilities, appears to have been primarily due to the power of the tsunamis.

    Earthquakes and tsunamis have shaped Japanese culture, ethos and lore. I wonder about the lessons to be learned, and remembered, from this cataclysmic event, by all humans. Does this current day experience in Japan mean that humans cannot creatively engineer solutions to resist or diminish the force of tsunamis and their effects, especially of the magnitude that hit Japan, and to a more diminished degree the tsunamis that hit the harbors of Santa Cruz and Crescent City? Should national policies prevent buildings and power plants from being built along coast lines that may be susceptible to tsunamis?

    Mother Nature is unbiased as to the history, geopolitics and nature of the humans who are in harms way of her forces. Catastrophic events may inspire certain philosophical and metaphysical questions and even more elusive answers, which may be much more difficult than engineering challenges, and are way beyond any blog. But, as long as life persists, there may be hope.

    Nature will have her way, and The Big One will happen. I question the quality of our preparation, and thus our ability to stay out of the way of Mother Nature’s implacable essence. Too frequently the answer to certain big questions is, “There is a lack of political and financial will to address the challenge.” In other words, we are distracted by crap issues that are not worthy of the value of life.

    Dan Bochneak

  5. 5 Tony Laganelli

    Your knowledge in this, your specialty, still prevails. I am reminded of the wonderful Stanford 2005 commensurate address by Steve Job’s, “one can connect the dots going backwards but can not connect the dots going forward”. The Japanese are the best at connecting dots on earthquakes and resulting tsunami’s and have invested accordingly. From an engineering and philosophical point of view, perhaps connecting dots should be addressed as curricula in our engineering schools. Now this will require some creative faculty, or perhaps developing a “Special Red Team” that does not mirror itself in traditional research. I would like to take a stab at this concept while I still have the heart.

    Tony Laganelli

  6. 6 Truong Nguyen

    Bob,

    Interesting thoughts on natural events. Whether they are purely from nature or man-made, I like the anology of riding the wave rather than fighting the tides. As a Navy physician, I have had the wonderful opportunity to experience the power of the human spirit. But without vision and collaboration, much more destruction would have ensued in Japan. In, today’s global market, I hope the U.S. can continue to be able to differentiate enemies from competitors.

    Cheers,

    Tron

  7. 7 Dr. Beyster

    Paul: It is good to hear from you — thank you for your note. I hope you will continue to monitor my blog, and keep in touch. — Bob

  8. 8 Dr. Beyster

    Ron: Thank you for your very thoughtful message on my blog. I agree that the news media tends to overplay the true seriousness of many events in the news. This has of course always been the case. It sells newspapers and attracts viewers. — Bob

  9. 9 Dr. Beyster

    Dan: I agree with your points, and I also agree that Nature will inevitably have her way. There is not enough money in all the world to protect us from every possible natural disaster, but we must do the best we can. — Bob

  10. 10 Dr. Beyster

    Tony: Thank you for your note, and for the quote from Steve Jobs. It is my understanding that the University of California, San Diego has some good research programs in the area of earthquakes connecting the dots with engineering. I think your idea of a Red Team is a good one, and I hope you will keep me up to date with your work in this area. — Bob

  11. 11 Dr. Beyster

    Truong: I hope you are right. — Bob

  12. 12 Jim Russell

    Bob, I just want to thank you for the letter you wrote for Becky Holderness for the celebration of her 30 anniversary at SAIC. She was thrilled to hear your words when I read the letter. We had a good time recalling about the challenges of getting the Proposal information Exchange or PIE started and we appreciated your support. Becky has done well and now runs several of the internal SAIC systems

    Also yesterday I attended a luncheon for Elody Crimai’s 35 anniversary at SAIC. It was fun too and we were recalling when Elody took over and made well SAIC Publications. We were laughing about doing proposals before computers and using Exacta knives to cut in changes. Pretty amazing all the great people at SAIC over the years. Becky and Elody were two. Every one is greatful for your vision, guidance and support.

    Best

    Jim

  13. 13 Dr. Beyster

    Jim: Thanks for your message — it was good to hear from you. We share many good SAIC memories, don’t we? Please stay in touch. — Bob


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